Okay.

Welcome back to Garys Economics.

Today, we're going to predict the next election, and

we are going to answer the question, will Reform win?

Okay.

So whenever I want to make a prediction about politics,

the first thing I always do is I check the odds.

The betting odds are not always right, but I think it's

always a good idea to look at what the market thinks

and then compare it to what you think, and see

if you can understand what the difference might be.

So I look at these odds a lot.

Obviously, I used to be a trader.

I'm looking at the markets a lot.

But I also do, now I'm interested in politics,

look at the betting markets for politics a lot.

So we're going to flash these up here.

I go to Betfair, and I look at the market.

It's a little bit difficult to

translate, so I'll do it for you.

This here shows the betting market for who will

get the most seats at the next UK election.

These two red and blue numbers,

they show, a range of probabilities.

And if you divide one by the

number, you get the probability.

I'll do the maths for you.

What this says is that Reform have almost exactly 50%

chance of getting the most seats at the next election,

and Labour have... That's probably going to be something

like about 32% chance of getting the most seats.

And then you've got the Conservatives

down at... That's going to be about 12%.

And then there's about a 2% chance for the Lib

Dems and a little bit for a few other parties.

So basically, the betting market thinks

that Reform have almost exactly 50% chance of

getting the most seats at the next election.

And that probability has been steadily climbing,

really, over the past few months I've been following it.

Does that mean Reform will win the next election?

Now, this is a little bit more

complicated because in the UK we now have a

multi-party system, which is kind of amazing.

We've never really had one before.

Because the main two historic parties, Labour

and Conservatives, are very unpopular now, we're

going to get a situation in the next election

where really a lot of parties get a lot of seats.

Most seats will go to Reform and Labour, but

the Conservatives will probably still get a few.

The Liberal Democrats will get

a big chunk like they did last election.

And I think the Greens will also get

a decent chunk for the first time ever.

And I think because Labour will be unpopular,

the SNP, the Scottish National Party in

Scotland, will get a lot of seats as well.

Now, the betting market thinks... We can

also ask the betting market whether it

thinks anyone will get an overall majority.

So the way it works in this country

is they'll get a number of seats.

Historically, the winning party almost always gets

a majority, which means more than 50% of the seats.

But because in the next election the vote

will be so divided, there's a good chance that

whoever wins, be it Reform or Labour, who it will

almost certainly be one of those two parties,

neither one will get an overall majority.

So we can also look at the betting market here for

overall majority, and what you see is that the chance

of there being a majority is... They reckon there's

about a 52% chance that we'll have what we call a

hung parliament, which means no one has a majority.

So there's a good chance, according to the

betting market, Reform will get the most seats,

but they will not get enough seats to get a majority.

Which then means there's the possibility

for, like, coalitions, and you could end up

with this really complicated situation where

Reform have more seats, but you would imagine, because

Reform are quite unpopular other than with Reform

voters, that the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and

the Scottish National Party might support Labour.

Which might give them more seats than Reform, but

then the Conservatives, will they support Reform?

Maybe they will, maybe they won't.

So you could end up in this really complicated, like,

split situation where Reform have the most seats, but as

a coalition, Labour, the Lib Dems, the SNP, the Greens,

have more, and then what will the Conservatives do?

And it could be phenomenally complicated, really.

So basically, when we look at the betting

market, what the betting market tells us is

it's 50/50 Reform will get the most seats, but we

don't know whether that will be enough for them to

get a majority or to form a government.

Okay.

But that is the betting market.

And obviously, as you know, because I talk about

it a lot, I was a former trader, and I was a

very successful trader, and I still do trade now.

When I look at the odds for anything, financial

market, betting market, I'm always asking myself,

"What do I know that the betting market doesn't know?

Could the betting market be wrong?" And I've got

a pretty good track record recently of correctly

predicting politics based really on just one

thing which I know, which political

forecasters generally don't know, which is

that the economy and the economic situation and

living standards are going to keep getting worse.

This is based on the very simple understanding,

which I speak about a lot on this channel,

which is that falling living standards are

linked to rapidly growing wealth inequality.

Our political leaders are not doing

anything about growing wealth inequality, which

means that inequality will continue to grow

and living standards will continue to fall.

Understanding that is basically why I was able to

predict the failure of Rishi Sunak, the failure

of Keir Starmer, and the rising popularity of Reform.

That will keep happening.

Living standards will keep falling, which means that

by the time we get to the next election, and the

next election here in this country is not due until

2029... By the time we get to the next election,

living standards will be even worse than they are now.

The economic situation will be worse, and this will

be basically devastating for the popularity of Labour.

And this is why I think you've seen

Reform's odds rising and rising and rising.

That is basically because the longer Labour are in

power, whilst they do nothing about inequality, it is

basically inevitable that living standards will fall,

their popularity will fall and that will increase

Reform's leads in polling, and that will increase

the Reform's likelihood of winning the next election.

So I think because the economic worsening is not

baked into these statistics, I think Reform's chances

of winning the next election are significantly

higher than the betting market thinks of 50%.

One other thing I should add to that is

when you... If we look historically, this economic

worsening is going to make Labour more unpopular, but

there is a really strong historical trend of at times

of economic weakness, especially prolonged economic

weakness, really strong demand from the public for the

far right, and also for leaders who give a sense

of strength, strong-seeming leaders, especially

leaders who are sort of strong and on our side.

And that is very much the vibe that Farage is going for.

And at the moment, none of the other parties,

none of the other main parties, Conservatives

or Labour, have really been able to do that.

So as the economy weakens, really further

economic weakness is terrible for

Labour and it's just great for Reform.

So I think they have much better chance

than the betting market suggests.

So as that happens, as time passes, Reform's...

Unless Reform do something crazy or there's

some massive scandal, which is definitely

possible because I think there are some

perhaps slightly rogue guys in their party.

If that doesn't happen, I think Reform's

odds will go up and up and up and up and up.

And then that will force the other parties to react.

Because as time passes, it will become more

and more obvious that Labour are going to lose.

The Conservatives are already in a very weak place.

And as it becomes clear they're losing,

they will have to move.

So what will they do?

So Labour... Labour are in interesting situation.

They have a budget coming up in November.

Their economic situation is terrible.

They're probably going to significantly

raise taxes in the autumn.

They're not going to go for popular taxes

like the wealth tax, like taxes we support.

They're probably going

to go on taxes on the middle class.

They might go on taxes on working people.

I think it's going to be very difficult for them

to do that and not take a big hit in popularity.

Then in May, we will have local elections,

Including here in London, and I

think they will do really, really badly.

So I think that Labour are... Firstly,

they're already polling really badly.

Keir Starmer, the leader, polls really badly.

And they're about to go into two like really bad

events basically, a really bad autumn budget

in November, and a really bad election in May.

So, basically, Labour are in a really

bad situation, which is about to worsen.

And what that means is the same thing that

I've said for a long time, because I've

always predicted this would happen to Labour.

Keir Starmer's popularity will collapse.

Labour's popularity will collapse, and Labour

will be forced into a massive rebrand,

which is going to change the leadership.

And we can actually look at this

in the betting markets as well.

So, if we flash it up, you can look at the betting

market, when will Keir Starmer leave?

And if you look at it now, at this point, it thinks that

Keir Starmer will be lucky if he survives next year.

And I think that there is a good

chance that Keir Starmer will go next year.

We don't know for sure it'll be next year.

The betting market here reckons the chance of him

surviving to the next election are about something

like 16%, which is obviously very, very low.

So, we can't say for certain,

but I think I'm pretty confident.

Keir Starmer will go, Keir Starmer will

be replaced, and there'll be a new leader.

Now this... And again, I've said it for even since

before Labour came in that this is what would happen.

This is a massive opportunity for us because there

will be a new Labour leader probably next year.

We don't know exactly when.

And when that leader comes in, he or she will

have to come in with some kind of brand, some

kind of message, some kind of story, right?

They will have to say, "I am Mr. or Mrs. X.

I stand for Y.

My plan for the future of this country is

Z." And in particular, because the economy

continues to worsen, they will have to have a

very clear vision and a very clear picture on

what they were going to do for the economy.

And when they come in, they will have to look around

at all the different ideas about how we should

manage the economy, and they will have to pick one.

And they say, "This is going to

be the brand which identifies me.

This is the kind of economic leader I am.

This is the kind of economic future I want for

the country." And this is going to be a massive,

massive opportunity for me, for us, for this

channel, because I think personally, if you are

a new Labour leader coming in now, and you want to

win the election, the best economic strategy for

you to pick is wealth taxes, is inequality,

Because really, this is the simple

question, is, "What the **** else is there?"

I don't think you can go running on what Labour

and what Keir Starmer have been running on up

till now, which is just, "We are really sensible.

We're going to try and sensible our way out of this.

We're going to try and grow, grow, grow

our way out of this." Because it's really

clear that that is the existing status quo.

That's what governments have tried to do for 20 years.

It hasn't worked.

It's not working.

It's not working for Keir Starmer.

So they have to do something new.

We have to basically position ourselves

that when the new Labour leader comes in, they look

around the world of economic ideas, and they say,

"The one that is going to win us the next election

is inequality, is wealth taxes, is that stuff

supported by Garys Economics and Gabriel Zucman and

Patriotic Millionaires." We have to be that voice.

It's a massive opportunity for us.

If they choose that, I think they can win the

next election, which means I think Reform will

lose the next election. Will they choose it?

So I think it's an obvious choice

I think it's an obvious choice if they want to win.

I don't think Labour are great, so

they might not make the right choice.

There's a couple of other choices they can make.

The other choice is to kind of double down on this

Mr. Sensible, Keir Starmer sensible Labour stuff.

Grow, grow, grow.

It sounds great.

It's... If you're a very boring person, it's...

I don't think it's going to win the public.

It hasn't worked for Keir Starmer.

It didn't work for Biden and Kamala.

It will be very unoriginal, it will be very uninspiring.

I think you're handing the

battle over to the right.

There is another choice they can make, which I think

is a good chance the choice that they will make, which

is to come in very anti-immigration, and that is because

at the moment, the big salience is on immigration.

They're worried about Reform, and they could say,

"Okay, well, we are going to go on the issue which

everybody's talking about, which is immigration." If

they do this, it brings up the issues that I spoke about

in the video from two weeks ago about storytelling and

salience and wedge issues, which is immigration is the

issue upon which Labour is weak and Reform is strong.

So if Labour chooses to make immigration its defining

economic policy, it's basically signing its own death

warrant because it basically guarantees that the entire

economic debate between the new leadership coming in

and the election will constantly be the issue about

which Labour is weak and Reform are strong.

So, basically, I think when the new Labour leader

comes in, he's going to have three choices.

Either move... try and shift salience towards

inequality, distribution, which is the

issue on, on which Labour is strong.

Well, it could try to become strong.

We are strong, and if they try to use our voice,

they could become strong and Reform is weak.

Or it can continue on its sort of nothing, nothing

boring path, which I think is a death warrant.

Or it can choose to aggressively raise the

salience upon which its opponent is strong,

which I think is a failure as well.

If they come to us, I think they can win.

I hope they will.

I'm going to try everything to make sure that they do

That's going to be our main

priority, here on this channel.

Unfortunately, I think they probably

won't, which means I think they'll probably

end up choosing the immigration option, which

means Reform will win the next election.

Okay, so next is the Conservatives.

So the Conservatives are still in there with a chance.

The betting market does think they have a 12% chance

of winning the next election, getting the most seats.

Which is interesting, right?

Because it's not zero.

And at the moment, like there's a

lot of talk "Conservatives are dead."

Their leader is also unpopular despite

the Prime Minister's unpopularity.

They're basically having their space aggressively

usurped by Reform, and it looks like the

party basically is at risk of disappearing.

So why have they got the 12%?

Okay, Reform... Conservatives also... Again,

we can look in the betting market and we can see

betting market thinks the Conservatives will almost

certainly change their leader as well next year.

So we can see here that the... Kemi Badenoch

also less than 50% chance of surviving next year.

They'll bring a new leader in.

It looks like it will be probably Robert Jenrick.

We're not sure.

There's this interesting thing that happens in games,

which is when you are losing a game, especially

when you are losing a game quite aggressively,

being kind of crazy becomes an optimal strategy.

And the reason for that is probably best understood

by looking at it from the flipped perspective,

which is imagine I'm comfortably winning a game.

I know as long as nothing crazy happens,

the game will be predictable and I will win.

So people who are winning want

predictability, which means what people

who are losing want is unpredictability.

And I think as we get closer and closer to that

election, at the moment the Conservatives are

kind of biding their time, thinking about the new

leader, hoping that Reform do something crazy,

**** it up somehow, get like a big scandal.

And then Robert Jenrick is going to come in,

basically again, very hard on immigration

and hope that they can take the place

that Reform lose by sort of ******* it up.

If Reform don't **** it up, as we get closer to the

election, the Conservatives will be more and more in

a situation where they have to do something crazy and

really I'm kind of interested to see what they do.

You will probably see more and more and more kind

of wild and erratic behavior from the Conservatives

as we approach the election because they are

kind of facing basically an existential threat.

There's a good chance that

they will disappear as a party.

And that 12% is basically the 12% chance of, will

the Tories do something crazy which is somehow popular.

I think it's unlikely, but we'll see.

There's a couple of other parties

that I should mention, right?

Which is the Liberal Democrats and the Greens.

If I'm honest, I think the Liberal

Democrat situation is relatively uninteresting.

The Liberal Democrats are... I

don't dislike the Liberal Democrats.

The Liberal Democrats are an interesting

party because they compete not exclusively,

but almost exclusively with the Conservatives.

And that is because their voters are largely richer

people who would otherwise vote for Conservatives.

Because the Conservatives did so badly in the last

election, the Liberal Democrats won like almost all of

their seats that they compete with the Conservatives.

I think they'll probably just do that again.

The big space really at the moment is who fills

the space that has been basically vacated by

the enormous decrease in popularity of Labour.

And that is where the Greens are quite interesting,

which is the Greens now have this new leader, Zach

Polanski, who is making like, quite a conscious pitch,

which is I'm going to fill that space vacated by Labour.

Labour have been sort of moving slowly

right as they sort of try and chase Reform.

Their popularity has collapsed.

And then there's this space which comes up for like,

"Well, we are going to be a party which is like broadly

left." And I've constantly said I think that

there's really a space for a popular party which

focuses the economy, focuses inequality, focuses

wealth tax, and also aggressively focuses on social

media where there's a lot of political power.

And this new guy, Zack Polansky in the Greens, seems to

be... It almost feels like he's just been watching this

channel and he's like, "Yeah, that's a good policy.

I'm going to do that." So it's... I think the Greens

have the potential to take a huge amount of seats.

Because of the massive unpopularity of Labour,

they're like an obvious guys who could fill that gap.

The new leader, Zack Polansky, talks about

30 to 40 seats, which would be enormous for

the Greens, who have never had more than four

seats, which is what they won last election.

It's optimistic, but I think it's possible

for the reason that I highlighted before,

which is Labour's popularity is going to tank.

The risk to the Greens is basically the thing that

we want, which is if the Greens manage to get popularity

on this idea of basically wealth taxes on inequality,

the new leader of Labour might try to usurp that

space, in which case it would really smash the Greens.

But I mean, if what you want is wealth taxes

on inequality, then what you kind of really want

is for the Greens to do this interesting thing

where they push a policy with the hope that Labour

adopt it, which would lead to the Greens losing.

It's this really interesting situation the Greens are

in, which is the best thing they can do for the country

is kind of intentionally lose, because they want to

drag Labour back into a kind of sensible policy space.

And this is... What I think is really interesting here

is that the Greens are now in the kind of situation

that Nigel Farage was in for, like, the last 20 years.

So, Nigel Farage, some people might not know,

he's the leader of the Reform Party, and before

Reform, he was leader of a party called UKIP.

And he only won his first seat

in Parliament last year, in 2024.

But despite that, Nigel Farage is almost

single-handedly the man responsible for Brexit.

And what that means, it's because he has been

doing basically exactly what I suggested the

Greens need to do, which is... He's constantly

been forcing the Conservatives to come towards

his direction without ever winning any seats.

Because he can keep saying, "Well, I'm going to win

4 million, 5 million votes, and you're going to lose

the election unless you come across." And I think

Farage shows what I would like, sort of, the Greens

and Green supporters to realise, which is, under our

kind of stupid political system, where every election

is an election where only two parties can't win,

as a smaller party, it is impossible for you to win.

But it is possible for you to dominate the political

narrative by influencing the main political parties.

And this brings us to... brings me to the next point I

want to make, which is, I think the only way, really,

that I can see Reform not winning this election

is either Labour come across under their new leadership

and they adopt inequality as

their policy message, or the Greens are

so successful that they bring Labour across.

And the truth is, I don't think either of

those things are likely to happen, which

means, that I basically think Reform are

probably going to win the next election.

But if you do want it to happen...

Because I know that a lot of my viewers will

probably not want Reform to win the next election.

If you do want that to happen, if you want

Reform not to win the next election, what do you do?

So I was speaking to my brother this week,

and he... he doesn't like me mentioning him

on the channel, so probably won't be happy.

But he said something.

He's an interesting guy, my brother.

He said something interesting,

which I was speaking to him about.

You know, "Do you think Reform will win the next

election?" And he agreed with me and said, "Probably

yes." And I was like, "Do think there's any way

that Reform could be stopped?" And he just said one

line, which was, "Aggressive and relentless pursuit

of unity and common ground." That's all that he said

This is the kind of thing that he says.

And in a sense, that's what I've just

said, which is basically unless the Greens

and Labour, the party on the left and the party of

the centre, both move into this space of focus

on the economy, focus on inequality, deal with

taxation, then Reform will win the election.

And at this point, I should probably also

mention there is obviously a third party.

There's the, the new party, which doesn't have a name

yet, which is led by Corbyn and Sultana, which...

They're behind wealth taxes as well, right.

These guys have also popped up.

The truth is we are going into the next election,

Reform will be strong favorites.

And really, whether Reform win or not will be decided

by whether these different groups of people, these

different groups of voters are able to do,

as my brother said... He's going to hate

me from keeping on mentioning him.

Aggressive and relentless pursuit

of unity and common ground.

It's as simple as that, basically.

We have, especially in this country, a political

system which aggressively punishes division.

Aggressively, aggressively punishes division.

What will probably happen in the next election

is that Reform will win an overall majority

with the smallest ever number of votes that

any party has ever won an overall majority.

And that will be simply because

the people and the politicians in this

country who do not support Reform are divided.

We have a political system, first past the post,

which as an aside, I think is a stupid political system.

Maybe I'll talk a video about it one time.

That voting system, that political system aggressively,

aggressively, aggressively punishes division.

So whether Reform win or not is basically a

question of will the centre and will the left

be able to be aggressive and relentless

in their pursuit of common ground?

And, I would love for them to unite on the issues

which they have in common, which I would like to

believe are fixing the economy...... dealing with

inequality, dealing with an unfair taxation system.

In reality, I don't think these various

groups are going to be able to do that.

And unfortunately, that's just simply because

there's a lot of bad blood and a lot of antipathy

between the centre and the left,

and that goes in both directions.

If they are able to be sensible, get their heads

together, focus on the message that will win,

which is inequality, distribution, the economy,

focus aggressively on their common ground, try

to avoid bickering and raising the salience

of their differences, try to avoid raising the

salience of their opponents, then they can win.

If they're divided, they will lose.

Okay, so that's my prediction.

I do think Reform will win the next election.

I think that will be clearer as time goes on.

Really, the big dice that is yet to roll

is Labour's rebrand and Labour's new leadership.

And in particular, what they

choose as their economic message.

I've been talking to Labour.

I'm not that popular.

I'm... They're not

that popular with me either.

I don't think that much of them, but I say that.

Like, I want them to win because I think we have a

much better chance of getting wealth taxes with them

much better chance of getting wealth taxes with them

than with Reform, but I don't think that they will.

I think they will...

I think they'll kind of **** it up.

I think they'll probably choose migration.

I think they'll end up

just boosting the salience of their opponents.

And I think Reform and Farage

will win the next election.

So, what do we think about that?

Now, this is quite difficult to talk about, right?

Because I try really, really hard on

this channel to be non-politically partisan.

I am a single-issue channel.

I'm an economist.

I think the issue is inequality, and it's

about wealth taxes, so how do we do that?

And I try my best and I genuinely want this

channel to be watched by people on all sides of the

political spectrum, including Reform voters.

And the country is becoming so divided at the moment

between people who like Farage and Reform and people

who don't, that it's very difficult to send a message

that will reach and be listened to all my viewers.

Because I know we're listened to

by people who are on both sides of this.

So, I'm going to send... I'm going to try to split

my message up into basically two parts.

One for people who don't want Reform to win and

then one for people who are maybe supporting Reform.

Okay, so if you don't want Farage to win, and again

we're going to have to split this message up now between

the people in the centre, people who might...

if you want to know who's on the centre, it's, you know.

Do you like Keir Starmer?

Do you like the current Labour Party?

Do you like Tony Blair?

You know, these kind of people

who like that kind of status quo.

What do we want to say to them?

And then we're going to talk to people

on the left, so people who might like

Zach Polanski, might like Jeremy Corbyn.

What do we... What are the

risks to both of these groups?

Okay.

If you're on the centre, and you

want... Presumably you want Labour to win.

The way that you will lose this next election

is by either persisting with a status quo

economic policy which has no salience, no cut

through, no narrative, or by moving aggressively

towards constantly talking about immigration and

aggressively raising the salience of your opponents.

You need a message which is

different from Reform's message.

If your message is Reform's message,

Reform will win the next election.

So, that's it.

You need your own message.

You need your own voice.

You need something that's popular.

And I'm building it for you here.

If you want to win the next election and

you're on the centre, you don't need to

change your opinions on everything, but you

do need to be open to doing something on

inequality, on wealth taxes, on the economy.

You want to be saying, "We're going to raise

taxes on the super rich so that we can cut tax

on workers." That will boost your economy.

That will make you popular.

That is how you win.

That is how you win.

And I want you to be really, really mindful

of that when you're thinking about who is the

next Labour leader and what should he support?

Now, if you're on the left, I think the real risk

to the left at this point is with the real growth,

the aggressive growth in the popularity

of Farage and Reform and things like the march

which happened last weekend, I think there is a

risk that the left gets very, very angry and starts

to be really, really aggressive and accusatory

towards people who might be voting for Reform.

I want to show you a clip which I

saw on PoliticsJOE the other weekend.

So, let's run it.

This is PoliticsJOE, talking to some

Reform, you know, passionate supporters,

people who've gone to the conference.

Let's see what they're saying.

Wealth tax or no wealth tax?

It's a very hard one.

I mean, I come from a working class town.

Everything in kind of Reform's policies would

maybe leaning more towards no wealth tax.

So, for me, if the wealth tax was possible, I'm at a

stage in my politics where I would actually support it.

There are a lot of Reform voters

who'd be supportive of wealth taxes.

I know that a lot of people are scared of

the growth of Reform, and the truth is, I

am scared of the growth of Reform as well.

I know that a lot of people who watch this channel

who see themselves as from the left are probably

people who are very interested in politics,

people who are very knowledgeable about politics.

Just the very fact that you're here watching

this video means you are probably somebody who is

interested in and knowledgeable about politics.

I would like you to understand that the vast majority

of people in this country are not experts in politics.

They read very little about politics.

They have not spent loads and loads

of time thinking and researching politics.

And they get their information from

the media or from social media.

And what they have been told and are being told

consistently in the media is that the reason you are

poor, the reason your kids can't get a house, the

reason you can't get a job is because of immigration

or because of illegal immigration, because of refugees.

That's what they're being told.

They're being told that again and

again and again and again and again.

So, this is where they are.

This is what they think.

This is what they're being told.

They think that the reason they're

being poor is because of immigration.

And if they go to a protest or, you

know, they speak online about this and

somebody gets in their face and calls them

a racist, that's not going to win them over.

You are not going to win

these people over like that.

I totally understand the instinct of people on the

left to worry about increasing racism in society.

I think it's happening.

I can feel it happening. You need to

be pragmatic, you need to be sensible.

If you want to get progressive change in the next

election, you need to win people over, and I think

you need to be really careful to resist the temptation

to go around shouting at people, calling them racists.

Listen, there are racists in this country.

There always have been racists in this country.

There's always been 100,000, 200,000 people who vote

for the BNP and might have been voted by racism.

Might have been... Sorry, motivated by racism.

Reform are going to win the next election,

and you are not going to stop that by

turning around and calling people racists.

What you need to do... And I know this might not be

pleasant for some of you... I think my brother's right.

You need to be relentless and aggressive in your

pursuit of common ground and unity, and that means

you're willing to go to people who you might not

agree with everything about and say, "Listen, I

know we don't agree on everything, but let's find

the thing that we do agree on, and let's fight

for that." Because those people at those protests,

they, just like you, are struggling to pay the rent.

Their kids are struggling to pay the rent.

They're struggling to find economic futures.

If you centre that, if you focus on

that, you can build something positive.

You can win them over.

If you focus on what divides you, all you're going

to do is make this country more and more divided.

So that, that's it, you know.

I think really, in politics,

as in history, division loses.

I think you can afford to find your differences

and fight over them when you are winning.

If you are losing, you need to find unity.

And it's as simple as that, basically.

If people on the left and on the centre

are able to be aggressive and relentless in

their pursuit of common ground, they can win,

and I think that common ground is the economy.

I think it's inequality.

I don't see any other way of stopping Reform.

So, if that's what you want to do, if you want

to stop Reform, if you want to see a more equal

country, you need to focus on that in your arguments.

Find that common ground.

Focus on your common ground and

unity when you speak to other people.

So I'm going to have a word for people who

want Reform to win, but before that, I just want to

talk a little bit about what happens if Reform do win.

And I know we have viewers all over the country.

It's not just Reform here, because the far-right

are winning and are about to win all over the world.

You know, my big concern if Reform win

is not actually really Farage and Reform.

It's not, it's not the current far-right.

I know these guys get called fascists

and they get called racists.

I don't think they are all fascists and racists.

My big concern is that when Reform get into

power, the same thing will happen to Reform

as what happened to Labour, what happened

to Rishi Sunak, what has happened to Trump.

Even what happened to Biden.

What has happened to basically every

politician and political party in the last 15 years.

They come in.

They don't deal with the fundamental economic

problem, which is growing inequality.

Living standards worsen, and then they find themself

in the same situation Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer

found themselves in, which is like, "Okay, we're in.

We're failing on the economy.

We're super unpopular.

We need to roll the dice.

We need to rebrand.

What do we do?" And you have this situation here

where Labour are kind of stuck in the centre, and when

you're in the centre, you don't really know where to go.

I said this about Trump before you came

in, and I think it's proving true,

and I'll say the same about Reform.

It's when they come in, their

economic policies aren't working.

The obvious political move is to say, "This is because

we are not going far enough on immigration." I think

it's a... It's just the re- It's just so... And you

can say, "Look, it's because we're being blocked.

Labour are blocking us, or the courts are blocking us,

or the European Court of Human Rights are blocking

us, or the academics are blocking us, or the lefties

are blocking us, or The Guardian's blocking us." And

you can say, "The reason that the economy is not

working is because we are not being aggressive enough

on immigration." So, at the moment, the emphasis

is on illegal immigration or asylum seekers.

And, okay, you leave the European... You

leave the European Court of Human Rights,

you know, the Convention on Refugees, and

you say, "The UK doesn't accept any refugees.

Done." That's not going to fix the economy.

I guarantee you.

I'll bet you any money that will not fix the economy.

Then you say, "Okay, well, you know, the

reason for that is because, you know, that

was just one part of migration, you know?

Look at all the enormous amounts of legal migration,

and legal migration is much, much, much bigger

than asylum seeking." So, okay, we need to get

rid of legal migration, and if you do that,

that's not going to fix the economic problems.

So, you get rid of legal migration.

You're still not fixing the economic problem.

What do you do next?

Well, the obvious place to go next is to

say, "Well, that wasn't enough because we've

already had too much migration" right.

So you go back and you look at people who have recently

migrated in the last five years, in the last 10

years, and you say, "Okay, we need to get rid

of recent migrants." You know, these people

might be British citizens in many cases.

They might have permanent residency.

So you start to kick out recent... recent migrants.

What if that doesn't work?

You know, what... My real concern is

this can keep going further and then

you can start scapegoating more groups.

You know, there was a clip online.

Did you see that clip with the American...

with the Fox News anchor saying he

thinks we should kill homeless people?

[Jack] What?

[Gary] Let's get this one up.

Okay.

Yes, there was a clip on the

right-wing American station recently,

Fox News, where they're talking about how to

deal with the problem of homelessness.

This is, you know, this is not the future.

This is today.

Either you take the resources that we're going to

give you and... Or you decide that you gotta be locked

up in jail, that's the way it has to be now.

Or involuntary lethal injection- Yeah or something.

Just kill 'em.

Yeah, Brian, why did it have to get to this point?

Right?

You know, the... I think this...

That really happened, by the way.

This is a really genuine thing that happened

in the US, which is a Fox News host

suggested that the way to deal with the problem of

homelessness is to execute all the homeless people.

So, I... And I'm not... Listen, I'm not saying that

Farage wants this, you know, and I'm not saying even

that Trump wants this, but, when your plan to deal with

the economy is to scapegoat a group of people, and

then you hit that group of people, you kick them out of

the country and it doesn't work, and you're unpopular,

the obvious thing to do next is to go harder.

And you're seeing this now in... You're seeing on the

biggest news channel in the US, anchors suggesting

the thing to do is to murder all the homeless people.

Listen, I'm not saying Farage wants to do that, right?

I'm an economist.

I think Farage will win the next election.

They will fail on the economy.

The obvious political move will to be...

be to go further, and I am very, very worried

about where this could go in the end.

And I would like that hopefully to

sharpen your mind, both if you want

Farage to win and if you don't want Farage to win.

But listen, if they win, I think we do need to be

ready for this because I think they probably will win.

There would also be massive political opportunity,

which is the sense that, at the moment, Farage has

the phenomenal strength of never having been in

power, which means that he cannot be blamed for

any of the economic weaknesses that the UK is in.

Because the Conservatives were

in for 14 years, they failed.

Labour have been in for a year, they

are failing and will keep failing.

And he has this ability to say, "Well, I have this

magic bullet and it's going to work." When he comes

in, just as Trump has just come in, living standards

will keep falling and we need to be ready to say what

I've always said, which is, "This is what will happen

if you don't deal with inequality." Until and unless

we have a powerful and cohesive narrative, a

powerful story, which I think should be about

inequality and about billionaires, the only

political space, because the centre is obviously

failing, will be to go further and further Right.

Okay.

Now, I want to go on to

the people who want Reform to win.

I went on LBC yesterday, on Tom

Swarbrick's show, I did a live phone in.

And, somebody called in and he said... he said

that he wa- he's a fan of the channel, so he might be

out there watching today, and he says he enjoys

the videos and he enjoys the stuff that we put out.

But he said to me, "You're not going to win

because what I care about is immigration and,

and there's millions of us in this country

that what we care about is immigration.

And maybe not you," talking to me, "Maybe not

you, Gary, you don't maybe do this, but your

supporters, they turn around to us and

they call us bigots and they call us racists.

And I'm not a racist, I just...

I'm just worried about immigration.

I want there to be less immigration."

This is what this guy said to me.

And I just want to make it very, very clear

because I know probably if you are a Reform

voter, you might be hearing things online about

me, that I'm a radical leftist or whatever.

There is a space for you here.

I do this for you.

Not just only for you, but I do this for all of the

hardworking men and women in this country and across

the world who see their living standards falling.

Okay?

I know it's broken, I know it's not working, and I

know when you look at the politicians around you,

you see a lot of people who think you're pretty ****.

And if honest... if I'm honest

I think the same thing as you.

I understand that.

I understand that.

And that's exactly why I do what I do.

I walked away from a lot of money to do this

because I could see the way the country was going.

I know that there's not a lot of

great political leaders out there.

I don't trust the guys that are leading it.

They are very, very wealthy people.

They're funded by very, very wealthy people.

Their plan is to cut the taxes of very, very wealthy

people and to fund that by cutting your public services,

your education, the NHS, the things that you need.

That's not going to work out well for you and your kids.

There's a space for you here.

I don't take sides.

I'm an economist.

I do what I do for the future of this country,

for the future of ordinary people like you,

families like yours, your kids, your grandkids.

I'm a very good economist.

I've got a very good track record.

I've got a lot of educational videos, which

I'll put up here for free, which you can watch

for free to understand what's happening.

If you do not deal with growing inequality, the

living standards of your kids and your grandkids

will get worse and worse and worse and worse.

There's a space for you here.

And I know when I, when I say that, that I don't

trust your leaders, you're going to turn around and

you're going to point to Keir Starmer and you're

going to say, "Well, I don't trust him either."

And the truth is, I agree with you.

I wish we had more good political leaders.

And at the moment, maybe we don't.

I'm working hard to build that

and I would like your support.

We're building something here that's

going to put more money in your pocket, that's

going to mean your kids can have homes.

But there's something else I need say as well.

Listen, I'm from London and I grew up in a very

multicultural place with lots of people, lots of

different colours, lots of different countries.

And last weekend, I had friends who were scared to leave

the house, were scared to walk on the streets of London.

And that's because they think you're racists.

That's what they think.

And I tell those people that, "You're not all racists.

That a lot of you are just worried about the

future of this country." And they don't believe me.

So I need you to prove me right.

If it's about immigration and it's

not about racism, keep saying that.

And if you see racists in your movement,

you need to do something about that.

Because these economic problems that we're seeing

in our country of growing inequality, falling living

standards, unaffordability of housing, I guarantee you

right now, they are affecting people on both sides.

And I guarantee you right now, if you guys are

not able to aggressively find your common ground

and unity, that division will tear this country

apart and will destroy the living standards

for your futures, your kids and your grandkids.

So listen, that's my final message.

I don't like doing this schoolteacher ****.

I don't know if it's going to work.

But, if you're divided, you will lose.

And I'm not saying that just to the

Right, I'm not saying that just to

the Left, I'm saying that to everyone.

If you are divided, you will lose.

Every single year, the richer get richer.

Every single year, the rich get richer

and richer and richer and richer.

And ordinary people lose their homes.

And ordinary families can't

afford to have kids, you know.

Can't afford to turn the heating on.

That is what happens.

If you're divided, you will lose.

If you are divided, you will lose.

You will spend your time fighting each other

and the rich will take everything.

You're going to need each other.

Don't forget that.

Tax wealth, not work.

Thank you very much.