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Predicting the Post Covid Economy

April 17, 2022
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okay so what we're going to do in this video  

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is a really clear explanation of what's going  to happen in the post-covid economy

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if we don't do anything about the massive increase in inequality now

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okay those of you who've been following this  channel from the start will have seen in the  

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very first video on this channel i predicted  that Covid would cause a massive increase in  

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inequality, increasing house prices, increasing  stock prices, increasing inflation and a massive  

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increase in cash accumulation by the richest  people in our society - those things have now  

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all come true - people who know about my career  before i started doing this will know that i  

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was one of the world's most successful traders and  economic forecasters coming out of the 2008 crisis  

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so i know a lot about what happens after  economic disasters and the way they affect  

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the economy we need to talk about what is  going to happen in the next couple of years

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now i'm going to say right from the start  okay these are not going to be optimistic  

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predictions okay if we don't take any action  against a massive increase in equality that's  

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happened in the last couple of years the future  is going to be pretty bleak i'm going to say that  

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right from the start okay this is not going to  be an optimistic video if we don't take action  

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things are going to be really bad for ordinary  families in this country and around the world  

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but we need to talk about it because the only way  we can prevent these bad things from happening  

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is if we understand the significance of inequality  so we get people together to do something about it  

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okay my biggest biggest economic concern for  the next couple of years is that the media  

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and economists in the media completely ignore  the massive increase in cash accumulation by  

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the richest you can already see it right now  when we look at the huge amount of inflation  

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which as you know i predicted at the beginning of  Covid based on a massive cash accumulation by   

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the rich the media is only talking about that in the  context of the Ukraine-Russia war it's very very  

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important you do not let people say that this is  caused solely by the war there has been a massive  

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accumulation of cash by the richest people the  reason it's important that people understand this  

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is if it starts to be accepted generally that the  inflation is only due to the war then we're not  

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going to do anything about this massive massive  cash accumulation right so if we have this massive  

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cash accumulation and we do nothing about it then  we are going to move forward with the average  

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richest people in this country sitting on  a hundred grand extra cash than pre-covid  

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so what's happening now it's basically an  economic experiment what happens if you just  

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print a hundred grand for each rich person in  the country and give them each hundred grand  

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that is what's happening okay if we go forward  saying the inflation is only because of Ukraine

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then we're going to ignore that cash which means  they will keep that cash so what is going to  

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happen to society if every single super-rich  person is sitting on 100 grand in the bank  

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they're not going to keep that cash sitting  in the bank they're going to use it primarily  

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to buy assets okay what that means is they're  buying assets from ordinary or poorer people  

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but also they're going to push up the prices  of natural resources we've seen that massively  

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in Covid right so consider what's happening now  okay your average rich person has 100 extra cash  

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your average ordinary or poorer person is  looking at £3000 a year extra in bills  

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so this means ordinary and poor families are  going to have to start selling their assets  

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to richer families in order to sustain their  quality of life and their kids quality of life  

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so what you see is fewer and fewer  ordinary families owning property  

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and richer people getting more and more of the  real assets in the economy the other thing they're  

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going to do is start loading that money out that's  going to mean there's more money to be borrowed in  

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the economy which is going to push house prices  up even further so you're going to move to a  

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situation where richer families are buying the  houses of poor families more specifically you're  

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going to see kids from richer families able to  pay huge amounts of money for property which  

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means kids from poorer families don't ever  get property this creates a situation where  

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ordinary kids ordinary young people from ordinary  families spend longer times renting which means  

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they pay more rent to the rich and if they do buy  property they have to buy using bigger mortgages  

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which means bigger mortgage payments for a longer  period of time to the rich and they will possibly  

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never pay those mortgages off in the whole of  their lifetimes so what we're looking at is a  

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future where ordinary families cannot own property  increasingly and if they can own property it's  

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using bigger and bigger mortgages whereas richer  families own more of the properties and have  

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enormous amounts of debt owed to them from the  rest of us so what does that mean right that means  

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ordinary families then number one first they've  lost disposable income because the increase in  

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food and energy prices which is largely caused  by the massive increase in cash held by the rich  

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secondly they have to rent for longer third if  they can buy they have to buy bigger mortgages  

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so all of these things are draining cash out  from the bank account of ordinary people and  

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putting that cash into the bank accounts of richer  people who own the properties receive the rent  

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own the mortgages receive the interest and  own the natural resources so receive the  

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money when the natural resources go up so  every single thing that is happening here  

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is dragging cash out of ordinary families bank  accounts and putting it into the bank accounts  

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of richer people so the long-term consequences  of this increase in covid inequality is just  

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a sucking a draining of cash from the ordinary  families from the middle class of this country  

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and all of that cash going to the rich but what  does it mean if ordinary people don't have money  

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well it means ordinary people can't go to  the pub, they can't go to the cinema, they can't  

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go to the theatre, they can't go to the football,  they can't go on holiday right but these are the  

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things that drive the economy right if ordinary  people can't spend money then the rest of the  

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economy is going to be starved of customers right  and what you're going to see is this splitting in  

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society where increasingly ordinary families have  basically nothing and the rich have everything and  

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then the economy which relies upon the spending  of ordinary people is going to be starved of that  

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spending so even if you yourself are not affected  your job will be affected so what you'll see  

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then is wages being dragged down but who receives  wages ordinary people receive wages who pays wages  

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the business owners which are the rich people  so every single thing that is happening here is  

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dragging cash and resources away from the ordinary  families of this country and giving it to the rich  

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and on top of all this the number one thing is we  are not taxing the super rich we are taxing them  

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at super low rates so we're sucking the wealth  and the income out of this country and we're  

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giving it to this tiny group of elite super rich  people who pay no tax this is the equivalent of  

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your neighbor giving his house away giving all of  his money away to somebody who doesn't care about  

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him and will never give it to him back if we give  all of the resources of this country to the rich  

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who don't pay tax we might as well be giving it  to aliens these guys are not going to support our  

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economy and look i'm not just saying this i bet  that this exact thing would happen after 2008 and  

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lead to a prolonged economic crisis a prolonged  stagnation in ordinary living conditions okay so  

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if we don't do anything about  the rising inequality now

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you know i'm not going to put a fine point on  it is going to be the death of the economy  

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for this country for ordinary families  over the next five ten years - it will  

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dominate this economy for the next five ten  years and the realistic consequence of that  

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we're not just talking about the poorest  people ordinary people if you are in the middle  

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of this country the 50th percentile your kids will  not get a house because of what is happening now  

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that is what is going to happen you know what  i mean and even if you're richer than that  

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your grandkids are not going to get  a house because we are draining the  

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resources of this economy and giving it to  the super rich who do not pay any tax okay so

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that's what's going to happen the human  consequences are going to be terrible  

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i'm betting on that happening  because i think it's going to happen  

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the number one thing which is going to  determine whether this happens or not  

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is whether ordinary people understand that  the problems we are facing now economically  

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are caused by the massive cash accumulation of  the richest people if ordinary people understand  

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that then they can demand from politicians  look we are not going to vote for anyone  

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unless they do something serious about taxation  of the richest and let me address one other thing  

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now okay to people out there who are going  to say look you can't tax the riches because  

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they'll leave okay look at what look what's  happening now right look at roman abramovich okay  

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he's losing all of his assets in this country  again it doesn't matter where roman abramovic is  

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because his assets are here in this country  okay and what is happening now with the russian  

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oligarchs is making it super clear we can tax  these people it doesn't matter if they leave  

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their assets are here and we can tax them and if  we don't tax them then the future is going to be  

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really really bad for the people of this country  and i'm not just saying that i've been betting on  

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this for 15 years i've made millions of pounds  doing it and that is what is going to happen

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oh yeah we'll take that for our  first take shall we? yeah

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housing could be so much more affordable wages  could be so much higher and we could have so  

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many more options in how we live our lives some  of them put a lot of money into paying economists  

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and think tanks to tell you that inequality  is important for the economy that is not true