Mini-Budget Disaster - My Response
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okay um I'm gonna put this... ok Have i got everything I need?... yeah
you tell me when we're good yeah
*just do a little bit of talking* one two three four five six seven
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yeah ready? *I'm ready yeah* okay
all right this video is going to be the response to the budget on Friday so
we're filming this on Thursday, Thursday 29th so the budget was six days ago um
first I'm going to just say straight up this is going to be a bit of a longer video
than the normal videos um and that is because the budget situation is a very serious situation
um normally for YouTube we sort of shoot for like 10 minuteish videos because like that's
whatever it is better on YouTube um and we kind of snip it up to make it like good YouTube length
but that obviously requires some editing and some sort of like careful planning and for this
um basically I just didn't want to snip anything up or cut anything down because it just didn't
feel like the right thing to do basically because it's a very serious situation there's like a lot
to talk about so ultimately it's going to be a very long video and um you can watch as much as
little as you want but given the seriousness of the situation I just felt like we just have
to basically do talk about everything all the way through um and I've got my computer here so that
I can sort of try and get everything in um and the video is going to be split into two parts
First i'm just going to talk about basically my experience of the budget and that's like a
little bit not normally what we do it's more like a very analytical channel and there will
be analytics and if you want just that if you want just the analysis we will put a
little button up so you can skip straight to it um but the budget was just quite a
a big moment for me and I want to talk about that just because I think it's it's important
but basically it gave me some conflicted emotions about even doing this video and
I think it's it's important that people realise the importance of the situation you know the last
few days I was at Labour conference and there was a lot of sort of optimism there because
you know given this sort of catastrophic collapse in in the government they're sort of thinking
we're going to win the next election and it just sort of left me standing there thinking
I'm not quite sure people understand just how serious this is so um
so I want to just talk about what it was like for me to watch the budget
um maybe it's much because I want to get off my chest but I think I think um people need to know
it from the human side as well as the analysis so we're going to start with that and like I say
if you want to skip it you can skip it and we'll tell you where to skip to we're filming this on
the Thursday the budget was last Friday um so I live in East London quite close to Canary Wharf
where I used to work I've got like quite a nice apartment here that I bought when I was working
um and right now I'm writing a book so you know I'm not working regular hours so I woke up quite
late on Friday and I went I went over to the kitchen over there I think we can see on this
camera kitchen there and you know I wake up every morning and I cook myself porridge for breakfast
every day which is a promise I made to myself when I quit the city and that's what I was doing
so I was cooking my porridge on a Friday and I had that I've got a TV this year and I was I
was watching the budget um and I came over with my porridge I sat here and I watched the budget and um
so in the budget you probably are aware if you're watching this video there was announced basically
like a massive slashing of taxes for the richest people the the big thing which is unexpected
was they cut the 45 percent bracket which applies only to people who are above 150 grand
um I think it's important to realize like you hear 150 Grand you think that's cutting taxes on people
150 Grand it's not if you're 150 Grand you are unaffected by that even if you earned 200 Grand
you're only saving not a huge amount of money the people who save a huge amount of money from
that tax cut people who earn sort of one million two million pounds a year so it's it's a huge tax
cut on people who earn millions of pounds a year obviously in the context of people who know who
watch this channel will know in the context of in the last three years the largest and fastest
ever increasing inequality in the history of the country and you know I think outside of wartime
the largest and fastest have a decrease in broader living standards in the history of the country
um and you know um people who watch the channel will know like basically the main thing we talk
about on the channel is is to try and get people to understand that the fall in living standards
is is connected to and ultimately caused by the increasing inequality and understanding that when
inequality increases that hurts ordinary standards for living people for ordinary people um but not
only that right you know the reason that I'm able to live in this quite nice apartment is because
I used to be a trader and I made a lot of money after the 2008 crisis by basically betting that
because we would have very high inequality and because inequality wouldn't be fixed there would
be a massive collapse in living standards and that the economy would never recover so so you know my
my history as an adult is basically a history of predicting disasters for ordinary people on
the basis of increasing inequality so when I was sitting here on Friday and I watched the budget
um and they're obviously announcing this massive tax cuts for for very wealthy people
um in the context of this cost of living crisis where ordinary families increasingly
are struggling to eat and to heat their homes obviously straight away I recognise
that that is going to cause a massive fall in living standards
now that's going to cause a massive fall in living standards ordinary people, um
and it was a strange experience right because obviously I'm here you know in this quite nice
apartment you know and you know there's a mortgage in this apartment but I could pay
off if I wanted to and um you know materially I have a very comfortable life and I'm sitting
watching these tax cuts on on wealthy people & you know I don't earn 150 Grand a year nowadays
um but I'm not going to be one of the people that gets hurt by these tax cuts um
and yeah it was very upsetting basically to watch
uh and it's just basically just a strange experience you know because you know I'm
here in East London close to Canary Wharf but like very close to here there's a lot
of families who are not rich and for them this will cause this will mean that you know it's
it's the, it's the mum doesn't eat so that the kids can eat you know and it's uh
that's what's gonna happen because of this and um
when I went out to the balcony and there's a nice little balcony here you can see I think
this camera will catch you know, its a nice balcony and we have a nice view of the marina and we can
see Canary Wharf um and I was standing out on this balcony um and am I in the right position now
um it's just this this sort of bizarre surreal space you're in where
I think most people still don't und erstand the connection between inequality and
and living conditions so, so in this budget what the government did is it's something
which in a way is quite clever because they cut taxes a very small amount for ordinary people
so so then if you're an ordinary person you're looking at sort of this maybe an extra whatever
50-100 quid a month tax cut from the government and you know one of my good friends called me up
his name's Jeremy he asked me about the budget and then and he said you know I think
people are going to be happy because they've got this like 100 quid tax cut and you know
I understand it because people were sitting there struggling and they're like we need
100 quid tax cut right but at the same time they're cutting taxes for very very wealthy
people by tens even hundreds of thousands of pounds if their incomes are huge um and
you know I've been trying to make the case on this channel for the last two years now you know
I talk about it a lot but you know if you haven't watched I would really recommend you watch the
first video on this channel how Covid-19 is making it which get richer you know that
was over two years ago now and since then I've basically been trying to explain to people that
if the government gives a huge amount of money to rich people it will make
your life get worse primarily because prices will go up and
you know during Covid the government over saw the biggest ever increase in inequality
in the history of the country but people accepted it because ordinary people had thought they had
their finances protected but the reason they got hurt is because if ordinary families got a grand
Rich family's got a 100 grand and you know I've been trying to explain to people if you allow that
your lives will get worse and then I see the government come out with this budget where they're
giving ordinary families you know 50 quid of their taxes and rich families 50 grand off their taxes
and the fact that they think they can do that
the fact that they think they can do that obviously means I haven't done my job well enough
because they think people will accept it um and if people understood that giving huge amounts
of money to rich people makes ordinary people's lives worse because prices go up they wouldn't
accept it and it's my job to try and make sure people understand that and enough people don't
understand that that the government thinks they can get away with things like this and because
of that you know there's going to be another massive increase in poverty in this country so
it's very important that people understand this and I'm going to explain it again I'm going to try
explaining it in a different way that hopefully makes it clearer some people understand okay
Money is NOT Resources - so money is not food, money is not energy, money is not
housing, money is not health care, okay if the government gives everyone more money
that doesn't mean there is more food, doesn't mean there is more energy, that doesn't mean
there is more housing, that doesn't mean there's more health care, money is the asset that we use
to determine who gets the real assets okay that's what money is, it's it doesn't make you
the society rich to have more money, money is used to determine who gets the real assets okay
so if the government gives you a £100 and the government gives the rich £100,000
you will have a hundred pounds or more cash and you will get less real assets, you will get less food,
less energy, less housing, less health care because money is about relative wealth
so when the government gives you a hundred pounds to buy you off for giving the rich
100 Grand or 50 Grand or whatever the tax cut the rich gets
you have to understand what it means okay you have to have a focus on the distribution
and when something like Covid happens where the government gives loads of money out but
the people who end up richer are the rich you have more money and less resources money is
fundamentally a competitive resource if you get a bit more money and the rich get a lot
more money you will become poorer you will get less housing less energy less food less
health care less everything that is the way money works it's a fundamentally competitive resource
um you know I'm going to say again and again because if you don't understand this
and if ordinary people and ordinary families who are the people who get hurt don't understand this
then you create a situation where the government which is increasingly run by multi-millionaires
can give you 100 quid and can give their class and their rich mates a 100 grand each and if
you are happy with that 100 quid while they get 100 grand then you and your family and
your communities will get poorer and poorer and poorer whilst you are getting these hundred quids
so you need to step back from just saying okay the government gave me 100 quid and have a broad
understanding of what is happening with the distribution here um and you need to understand
that that quite simply this this idea that if we give the rich a ton of money it's going to improve
the economy and make your life a better it it's quite frankly bullsh*t and the reason why I'm able
to live in this luxury apartment and and I don't have to pay a mortgage on it and the reason why I
haven't had to work a job for 7-8 years is because I've bet for years and years that that's bullsh*t
if you allow inequality to blow up those rich people are not going to use that money
to improve the economy they're going to use that money to buy your mom's houses and they're going
to give that money to their kids so that when your kids go with their 50-60 grand deposit
to try and buy a house their kids have got 300 grand deposits and your kids won't get the house
money is a competitive resource and if the government is giving absolutely tons of it to
the rich whilst they're giving bits of it to you you and your family and your community are getting
poorer and um that is the key message I basically want you to get from this video okay because
the government did that because they think they can get away with it and
the government thinks they can get away with it because they think you don't understand that
and they think they can give you 100 quid off your taxes and they can give millionaires
£100,000 of their taxes and they think you'll be sitting there happy with the £100 don't be happy
with your 100 quid understand that the government is giving the rich a ton of money
and that money will make you poorer because it will make the prices go
up faster than your bank balance goes up and faster than your wages go up
okay so that's the most important thing I want you to understand um and now we're gonna get into
what happened after that because um what happened after that was quite crazy and quite interesting
which was so the government traditionally historically when government make spending
promises or... this is kind of a spending promise because they're cutting taxation so they're
getting less money in, if they're getting... they need to balance their budget historically
okay so so in Covid the government didn't balance their budget and they just printed and gave out a
ton of money and it led to this dynamic that I spoke about where ordinary families may be
accumulated like a grand or two grand savings if they committed any many didn't and rich families
accumulated honestly hundreds of thousands of pounds huge amounts and that that led to
in a sense of predictable consequences which is um ordinary families had more money but they've
got less resources because money is the asset we use to distribute resources you've got a
bit more money they've got a load more money so they get more resources and you get less
um but they didn't balance their budget but um because it was temporary
uh markets allowed it and I think I think we probably need to unpack what that means so
this time round you know two things have happened recently with returns, with respect to government
finances which is 1.) they're spending a ton of money to basically pay your energy bills
and 2.) now they're massively cut taxes for the richest, so both of these things
mean that the government less money in more money out so where does the money come from
so this time around they can't print the money and that is because money printing is determined
by the bank of England the bank of England is independent the government doesn't fully
control the bank of England and this time around the bank of England is arguably not willing to
to print money to fund this because the bank of England is worried that inflation is already high
and it doesn't want inflation to go higher um so that means that they try to borrow money instead
um and as I speak about a lot in the channel um in the last few years wealthy people have accumulated
a lot of money so there's a lot of money to be borrowed so the government essentially goes to
wealthy people and says can we borrow the money um in reality what they they go to financial
markets and it's Traders people like me I used to be a Trader who basically determined are we
going to lend your money to the government or the wealthy people's money to the government or not
um and the Traders look at the government and they say okay well you know we're not in a one
of emergency anymore we're not in Covid anymore um and yet even now in these normal times you are
you know running a massive deficit spending much more than you get in basically so that
you can give the rich massive tax cuts and they're looking at that and they're saying
well how are you how are you ever going to pay that back? basically um
and you know I wouldn't lend my money to the British government at the moment because they
it doesn't seem like they have a plan basically to pay it back and you know the government are
saying it's going to cause massive growth nobody believes that, I'd be surprised if
even the government believes that you know, if giving money to the rich caused massive growth
then we would be a f*cking rich country because we would be growing to the moon because we've given
so much money for the rich in the last three years and has it caused a boom economy it looks to me
like it scores a disastrous economy and I think I don't know whether Liz Truss and Quasi Quartang
believe it but nobody... I don't think anybody seriously believes it um so they're looking
at the government and they're saying okay well you're borrowing, you want to borrow all this money
to give it to the rich your economy is not gonna to grow so how are you going to pay it back?
um uh historically you know in times when governments have borrowed huge amounts of
money like for example the the world wars - 1st World War, 2nd World War uh the way that they've
paid it back is essentially through inflation so it's a bit complicated but you know if we have
huge amounts of inflation then all the prices go up the debt stays the same size it becomes
easier to pay back because all the price of everything has gone up so tax receipts will go up
so I think markets are thinking well maybe there's going to be a big inflation to pay it back
um the other thing is that this well so because markets are scared of this inflation they start
to sell the British pound right because if prices are going to go up then pounds are going to be
worth less right you know if if all the prices are really high then pounds are not really valuable in
the shops okay so they sell the British pound then the Bank of England looks at that and says well if
the pound is collapsing all of our Imports will cost more, energy will cost more because
our money is worth less so there's going to be more inflation so in response the central bank
will almost certainly hike interest rates massively um because they're worried about
inflation and that's the bank of England's job is to manage inflation um so then Traders said
okay well if the central bank is offering very high interest rates why am I gonna I'm not going
to lend to the government unless I get very high interest rates so very quickly traders started to
demand very high levels of interest from the government um and and in fact interest rates
broadly rose in all kinds of products um most importantly mortgages and that's because
financial markets and the Central Bank think this government's policy will be inflationary
which I agree I think it will be so they're raising interest rates
um so lenders/traders demand higher interest rates because they can get higher interest rates
um this caused basically a panic in the market
um we could get into the details um pension funds uh lend a lot of money to the government
sometimes they even borrow money and lend it to the government to try and make a little bit extra
bang for their buck um but suddenly the value of these government loans is plummeting because they
lent the government at zero percent or one percent for the last 15 years the amount of interest you
get from the government has been very low and now these guys are sitting on these very low
interest loans which is actually going through the roof nobody wants these very low interest loans
anymore they start to collapse and then Pension funds who borrowed money to buy these assets
which who's price is collapsing suddenly they look like they might blow up um and the end result is that
the the bank of England had to come in and was basically forced to come in and support
the government and and buy government bonds which essentially means lend money to the government
um but really what is the most important upshot of this the most important upshot of this is
because of this crazy policy which will massively increase inequality
which will increase in inflation inflation and make your life worse
inflation will rise which means interest rates will rise
um and interest rates are expected now by the market to rise very very quickly you know the bank
of England base rate, the markets think it will go to six percent even higher which means that
mortgages could well go to sort of seven or eight percent um that'll be a disaster for the country
um there might be some people who say okay well back in the 80s interest rates for 10 however
you know back in the 80s house houses cost I don't know 40 Grand you know now houses cost 700 Grand
so you know you might be able to afford eight percent or ten percent mortgage on 40 Grand
not many people can afford that on 700-800 Grand which is you know not an uncommon mortgage size
in London and even outside of London there are plenty of people sitting on 200,300,400 mortgages
um and if interest rates go up according to what um financial markets and traders currently think
they will because of this government budget then when your mortgage if you have a mortgage um
when the fixed term expires your interest payment could well treble which means in the case of many
families an extra cost of quite quite easily in many cases up to a thousand pounds a month
um for millions of families across the country you know that is in a context of
rising energy bills, rising food bills, massively increasing inequality, massively increasing
wealth of the richest which means probably significantly higher inflation going forward um
I cannot describe how bad this will be and if I'm being completely honest when I watch the
budget on Friday I went I went to lunch there's a little Italian restaurant down here I go to and
I was thinking I was getting a lot of people tweeting me saying what you know what you're
gonna say about it and um it was the first time I've ever thought since I started this channel
maybe it's better that I don't make a video
and the reason I thought that and I'm not saying that's the right thing to think but it's
um the consequence of this will be so bad for the country and for ordinary families
and for ordinary living conditions and for you know poverty and rates of poverty um
that I honestly thought maybe it's just better people don't know
um because you know I have been pessimistic about the economy for a long time that's
that's how I made my money um and you know I was pessimistic since the beginning of covid
um and we make a lot of pessimistic videos on the channel they're often not the most positive
and I feel like it's hard you know I've I've been betting on bad things happening for a long long
time and I've been watching them happen um and it's some I'm a wealthy person and it's not me
that gets hit but it's still sometimes difficult for me personally you know I've been an economist
for for nearly 20 years now and and every day I look at the markets and I speak to economists and
I try and understand what's happening I try and understand what's going to happen and I
try and be right and I think it's very important that people try to be right I try to understand
and you know my honest analysis is that things are going to be really really terrible now and
you know I've been thinking that for a long time but never to the extreme situations we're in now
and you know for the last 10 years and sort of carrying this things are going to get worse things
are going to get worse it's not easy to know that things are going to get worse even if you're a
rich person you're not I didn't come from a rich background and it's it's people who are just like
me and like my family who are going to be hurt um and I have to carry that around and it's fine
I'm used to it but sometimes I just wonder if it's right to if it's right to share that
information because it's bad and because it's not something that makes people happy to hear
um so I thought about not making this video um and just taking a bit of time away
but at the same time you know I said it earlier on in this video this can only happen because
people like me have not succeeded in explaining well enough and clearly enough to ordinary people
that if the government gives you 100 quid and gives the rich 100 Grand that makes you poorer
um and this is only possible because people don't understand that so I can't simultaneously
sit there and say this is happening because people like me are not doing our job well enough
and not make this video um yeah I think it's not difficult to make things back
um you know if we want to make things better all we have to do is
be serious about measuring the distribution and inequality of wealth
um be serious about how can we reduce that be serious about how can we change our tax system so
that wealth flows from the very rich to ordinary families how can we make ordinary families richer
um so that when policies come in like the economic management of Covid or like this
budget there's a there's a thorough analysis both from professionals and from ordinary people
saying what's this do for inequality and we start you know really aggressively pushing for
policies that make make the wealth distribution more equal rather than less equal and I think
you know in the last few days I've had a lot of messages from people who
I don't normally get messages from who are worried and the reason for that is
the people who are going to get hit here of course ordinary people are going to get hit badly but a
lot of people have quite big mortgages are going to get hit quite badly and a lot of
people who have quite big mortgages are not from poor backgrounds a lot of sort of wealthy middle class
people have quite big mortgages um and they're messaging me saying what can we do about this and
you know there's people who work in the media who are messaging me people who work in politics messaging me
and what this makes me sort of realise is look wealthier people have have this sense of
politics is suddenly moving in a way that's going to hit me how can we sort of move
against it and I think because of that you probably see a lot of pushback in the media
you'll probably see even see a pushback from conservative politicians because they and
their families and their communities are going to be hit by this problem with mortgages and um
firstly that creates a big opportunity because you know up till now the people who've been hurt
have been you know largely poorer people but the group of people who are being hit
is widening to including people are not that poor which means we have this opportunity to create a
kind of a coalition alliance between poor people and people who are not poor but are not super
rich and maybe are more powerful and if we work together we can force the government to go to go
back on this um and actually there's a very good chance the government will be forced to go back
on this because if those mortgage rates rise the way that I think mortgage rates are going to rise
it will be an economic disaster in the country you know you know these these families don't
often don't have the money to pay those trebled mortgage rates so you know they have to sell their
homes you know um young people who have been you know I've got friends who save up every penny you
know sleep on their mum's sofas to save up 70 80 grand to buy to buy a house as a housing deposit
and now suddenly because the mortgage rates they're gonna need three times the deposit and they'll never
get the home so it'll be a disaster um and I think because of the extremity of the situation there's
a good chance the government will be forced to row it back um but what it shows is this also
shows to me that sort of richer people have this sense of how can we protect ourselves as a group
um and as somebody who came from a poor background that now works in a
space with a lot of richer people I worry that ordinary people who
often find life financially difficult are so busy in a day-to-day grind that they don't realize
how important it is that they also as a group collectively protect their political position
um because unfortunately the reality is if you know people in poorer and more average
financial positions don't collectively protect their financial position you reach
this space where governments you know I think Liz Truss is worth eight million pounds um
can bring in these policies that make you massively poorer um and they can try and
convince you that it makes you richer and you need to reject that you need to push back against that
but you also need to reach out to people in your communities, your families, your friendship groups
educate them about what's happening and you know I say it again and again please share these videos
and you know I'm not just doing this to get famous on YouTube like you know I used to
get paid more than a million pounds a year you know if I wanted to make money I would have
stayed there you know I do this because I don't want this disaster to happen I don't want it to
get worse and if we don't take action it will get worse um and the way that we stop this is
by ordinary people you know people in ordinary financial situations understanding we are going
to get f*cked over here unless we start to work together as a group to protect our interests um
and I would encourage you to educate yourself watch the video share this channel you know if
you have you know wherever it is that you you go you go to football you go to church you go
to mosque you know you go to play bingo tell the people around you look this is not temporary this
is getting worse and it will keep getting worse unless we take action we need to understand and
we need to push back in whatever way we can and you know you're not completely powerless you know
if you refuse to vote for anyone who didn't promise you explicitly we are going to bring
wealth inequality down we are going to start transferring wealth from the rich to ordinary
people then they would have to give you that they would have to give you that because these
guys need your vote and I know you know the vote is just one thing it's there's other things you
can do you can do community organising you can do community education, you can amplify my message
um but you need to do that you need to do that and I know things are hard and I know
like when it's when you're struggling sometimes just to pay the mortgage which is increasingly
going to be a problem it's difficult to sort of try and take that time to
do that education and community building but um if you don't do that this keeps happening
and this is not a temporary thing this is not like a like a bounce that you come back from this will
keep getting worse unless we take action um so yeah I think that's basically I think we're done
I think that's covered everything I wanted to say we oh I suppose I should just sort of say
um I would love to do more I would love to make more videos and I would love to answer
more of the questions I get and we will keep doing videos we'll keep doing more videos but you know
I am aware that the level of size the channel is now and it's growing but at the level of size
the channel is now like I'm limited in the power that I can like what I can achieve so
um so I'm working also to grow the channel um you know recently I got a book deal with
penguin and hopefully that's going to give like us a good chance to grow but it means also that
I need to take a lot of time basically writing the book um so like you know I'm not going to
be able to do it by myself you know and I don't expect you to do it by yourself either like we
only make things better as as a group and you know I'm going to keep working I'm going to
keep doing everything I can but um yeah you need to do something too and you know you
if you don't have anything else just share this video send it to your friends because the bigger
my voice is you know I remember back when Rishi Sunak was chancellor I used to go at him a lot and
you know I think people thought it was a joke but I did that because I thought if we bring this guy
up personally he's a billionaire he's super rich then it would be difficult for him politically
as Chancellor to raise tax on ordinary people and I I worked quite hard to do that because I don't
want him to raise your taxes and I don't want him to cut taxes on the rich but then you see
very quickly he's got a new Chancellor and then it happens so we need to build our power and I need
to build my power and I need to build my voice so you know it sounds selfish but but this is not the
only thing you can do but I need you to share this message so that I can be bigger so that I can try
and do what I can to stop this and it's not just me there's other people doing it this Tax Justice UK
there's Patriotic Millionaires there's loads of people and if you want you can go and you can
support them and you can donate to them you know I'm not taking donations I don't need donations
but share the message help me grow um and and you know educate your friends educate your family and
um and insist you know demand that wealth inequality comes down it's not it's not like
a cold hard fact you know inequality doesn't always get worse it can get better as well and
but if we don't make that happen then it will be life that gets worse instead so I'm sorry that's
not a positive message um we're gonna do more shorter videos I know this is a very long video
but I felt like I deserved that length um so yeah lastly just things are going to get harder and I'm
very aware that it's not me that will take that hurt and I know that in many cases it will be you
um and I'm sorry about that but we're gonna try
let's make things better so good luck and share the video and subscribe thank you
*are you okay?* yeah I'm all right