Welcome back to Gary's Economics, today we are going to talk about Jeremy Hunt and his "Black Swan" events...

Okay so for those who don't know Jeremy Hunt is  the new Chancellor of the United Kingdom he's the  

guy in charge of your economy um I'm a big fan  of Jeremy Hunt one of the first videos we ever  

put up on the channel explained how Jeremy Hunt  is able to buy houses without paying stamp duty  

because he buys them 7 at a time & there's  a special uh exclusion in stamp duty for anyone  

who buys more than 7 houses at once so he's  a very wise man he's very good with his taxes  

um but today we're going to talk about  Jeremy Hunt's recent speech that he gave  

so um obviously as you know the UK economy is  in a bit of a mess there's a lot of problems a  

lot of big problems for ordinary people and  Jeremy Hunt's talking about how he's going  

to fix it and I watched the speech here um in  the morning and it was largely a lot of empty  

platitudes not particularly important but there  was one line which really caught my attention as  

I was playing it in the background and it's where he  said that "in the last 10 years we've been faced by  

a string of Black Swan events in the economy"  so a 'Black Swan' in economics is is basically a  

very rare event black swans are very rare so black  swan events are not supposed to happen very often  

um and this idea that the reason the economy  is weak is because we keep getting hit by a  

string of of of bad luck basically is um it's  a it's a little bit triggering for me because  

my history for those who know on the channel is  I was a trader for a long time and I spent a lot  

of time betting that the economy would  be very weak and those bets continue to  

be right year after year and the economy has continued to be weak year after year and um

if you ask many economists why the  economy has been weak in the last 10  

15 years what they would often say is that is  this basically we've been faced by a string of  

very unlucky things that happened first  we had the 2008 'Financial Crisis' then we  

had the 2011 'Sovereign Debt Crisis' then we had 'Covid' (2020) now we've had the 'Ukraine War' (2022) 

and bad things keep happening and that's why  the economy keeps getting worse and worse um

and I think it's it's very problematic when the  people who are in charge of your economy when  

the economy continually has very bad outcomes  for poor and ordinary people have very good  

outcomes for very wealthy people like Jeremy  Hunt who is himself a very very wealthy man  

um when they say the reason it's happened  is just because we keep being phenomenally  

unlucky like imagine if you had a doctor who  every single patient that went to him died and  

when you asked him why do all your patients  die what he said was well I keep just being  

really unlucky and getting really really  sick patients and there's nothing we can do  

um I think that this is a line which we are  going to hear a lot from from economists  

and politicians which is that there's nothing  that can be done because we keep being unlucky  

um and it's important to understand that what  has happened in the last 10-15 years especially  

in the last 3-4 years since Covid, was in no way unpredictable or unexpected, so in Jeremy Hunt  

we have a man here who is very wealthy has been part of a government which has presided over  

the largest and fastest ever increase in  inequality in the history of the country  

he himself has no doubt benefited massively the Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has benefited massively

and when he's confronted with the question  of why is the economy been bad he says  

"well we just keep getting Black Swan events we  keep getting unlucky things happening" and there's  

no recognition there's no acknowledgment of this  structural problem which is that inequality keeps  

getting worse and worse and the problem is they  can keep making this argument again and again  

right the economy will get worse and worse it  will get worse in predictable ways because the  

rich have got richer they'll use that money to buy  the assets to the middle class, the middle class  

will get poorer that means less spending power  in the economy, that means lower wages, 

that means poorer living standards for ordinary people; all of these things are super predictable  

but they can always be blamed on the  events that happen at any given time  

so there's no doubt that when things get worse and  worse two three four years down the line and you  

know it could even be a labour government by then  they will turn around to whatever happens to be  

the most recent news story and say it was because  of of that thing that happened and um the only way  

that you ordinary people can defend yourself  against that is to understand what is actually  

happening which is that we have a structural  worsening crisis of inequality that will lead  

to predictable understandable bad outcomes um I  will keep telling you what will happen um just as  

I did from the beginning of Covid and you need to  be prepared to throw this stuff back in the face  

of politicians like Jeremy Hunt basically don't let them tell you that the reason that they keep getting 

richer & richer and you keep getting poor & poorer is because you're just phenomenally unlucky 

this is a system which as it is set up now is guaranteed to drive ordinary families  

into poverty and um you need to fight back to  stop it from happening so yeah don't accept  

nonsense from Jeremy Hunt and his best mate  Rishi Sunak um they're making a fortune it's  

just ordinary people that are not so um yep the  Jeremy Hunt and his Black Swan Events good luck

because we are draining the resources of this economy and giving it to the super rich who do not pay any tax

yeah he's my boy man he's my boy, I like to see a billionaire just take the mask off for once & just directly rob everyone